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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

The New England cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

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