Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Curtis Samuel's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 72.8% to 75.8%.
This year, the poor Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-worst rate in the league.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Miami's LB corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in football.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 122.6 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

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