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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-170).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The model projects Curtis Samuel to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this game (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.5% in games he has played).

With a terrific 74.3% Adjusted Completion Rate (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel stands as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 49.8 plays per game.

Curtis Samuel's receiving talent has tailed off this year, totaling just 2.0 adjusted catches vs 3.9 last year.

This year, the daunting Texans defense has given up a paltry 60.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

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