Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-225/+165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -195 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bills being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Curtis Samuel rates as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in an outstanding 73.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills as the 11th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bills are projected by the model to call just 60.2 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
Since the start of last season, the tough Baltimore Ravens defense has given up a mere 60.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.
The Ravens cornerbacks project as the 6th-best CB corps in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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