Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 23, 2024 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (35.3 per game) since the start of last season.
As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
With an exceptional 73.5% Adjusted Catch% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 123.1 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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