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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Curtis Samuel rates as one of the top WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an excellent 4.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 84th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • With a feeble 6.3 adjusted yards per target (24th percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel places as one of the worst pass-catching WRs in football.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 113.0) versus wide receivers this year.

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