|
|
Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -120.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.With a stellar 4.81 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel ranks among the top wide receivers in the league in football in picking up extra yardage.The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Curtis Samuel rates as one of the bottom wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 18.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 23rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.With a bad 5.9 adjusted yards per target (24th percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel stands as one of the weakest WRs in the game in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
