Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 6, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The model projects Curtis Samuel to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this game (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.5% in games he has played).
With a terrific 74.3% Adjusted Completion Rate (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel stands as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among WRs.

Favors Under

The model projects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 49.8 plays per game.
Curtis Samuel has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
Curtis Samuel's 13.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a substantial reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 41.0 mark.
Curtis Samuel profiles as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging just 7.52 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 24th percentile among WRs

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