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Curtis Samuel
NFL · Player Props
Curtis Samuel
WR · Buffalo Bills
Receiving Yards
Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2024 Updated Oct 6, 2024 11:31 PM EST
NFL Props Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -105.

Favors Over
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • The model projects Curtis Samuel to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this game (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.5% in games he has played).
  • With a terrific 74.3% Adjusted Completion Rate (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel stands as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among WRs.
Favors Under
  • The model projects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Buffalo Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 49.8 plays per game.
  • Curtis Samuel has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
  • Curtis Samuel's 13.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a substantial reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 41.0 mark.
  • Curtis Samuel profiles as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging just 7.52 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 24th percentile among WRs
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