Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league last year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Curtis Samuel comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing an excellent 72.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 88th percentile among WRs.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.6%) versus wide receivers last year (68.6%).
The Arizona cornerbacks grade out as the worst group of CBs in the league last year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Bills being a huge 7-point favorite in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
As far as a defense's impact on pace, at 28.35 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Bills to be the 7th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.
Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense last year: 3rd-fewest in the league.

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