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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 10.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Commanders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a massive 61.4 plays per game.

Curtis Samuel's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 74.2% to 81.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 11th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.

The Commanders O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the 6th-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 135.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

The Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 2.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.

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