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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-406).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -371 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -406.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.9 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Curtis Samuel has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 21.6% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among WRs.

Curtis Samuel's 43.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 7.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the league to wide receivers: 0.57 per game this year.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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