Curtis Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-375).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (21.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.3% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Curtis Samuel has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a terrific 80.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Curtis Samuel has totaled a paltry 9.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 15th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 4th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.74 per game since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.