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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-235).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +205.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Denver Broncos.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see 135.7 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Our trusted projections expect Courtland Sutton to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this contest (22.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).
  • The Denver Broncos offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • After accumulating 102.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has produced significantly fewer this year, now boasting 88.0 per game.
  • Courtland Sutton's 56.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 68.1.
  • The Texans pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (58.4%).
  • The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.43 per game this year.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston's unit has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 7th-best in football.

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