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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-172).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +174 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 134.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average).

The New York Giants defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.7 per game) this year.

With an elite 19.0% Red Zone Target% (81st percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton places as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Broncos are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Courtland Sutton has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (83.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

Courtland Sutton's 58.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 68.1.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the league versus the New York Giants defense this year (69.8% Adjusted Completion%).

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