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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.2% red zone pass rate.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projections to run 66.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.

With a top-tier 30.4% Red Zone Target Share (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Courtland Sutton places among the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.

When talking about air yards, Courtland Sutton ranks in the towering 99th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 102.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a massive 7.5-point favorite this week.

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.4%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.4%).

Since the start of last season, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals run defense has been gouged for a colossal 1.15 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, profiling as the 9th-best in football.

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