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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (58.5% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.

The Denver Broncos offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.54 seconds per play.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.

Courtland Sutton has compiled a monstrous 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

While Courtland Sutton has received 30.9% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Denver's offense near the goal line this week at 24.9%.

Courtland Sutton's 52.6% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a meaningful decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 61.9% rate.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Chargers defense has conceded a meager 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-smallest rate in football.

The Los Angeles Chargers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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