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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-265).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Broncos may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
  • The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in the NFL in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Courtland Sutton has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.4% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Courtland Sutton's 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 68.1.

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