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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 20

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Broncos.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have only 130.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The Broncos have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.
  • With an extraordinary 22.4% Red Zone Target% (90th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton rates among the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.
  • Courtland Sutton has posted a monstrous 98.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 26.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • Courtland Sutton's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 68.1.
  • This year, the tough Bills defense has given up a measly 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-smallest rate in football.
  • This year, the deficient Bills run defense has surrendered a colossal 1.33 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the biggest rate in the league.
  • The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 31st-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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