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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+184/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • Courtland Sutton has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • The Broncos O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 8-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
  • After averaging 102.0 air yards per game last season, Courtland Sutton has gotten worse this season, now pacing 88.0 per game.
  • Courtland Sutton's 52.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 68.1.
  • This year, the porous Raiders run defense has allowed a monstrous 1.33 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.

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