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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-250).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects Courtland Sutton to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this contest (20.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • Courtland Sutton has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (93.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).
  • Courtland Sutton's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 68.1.
  • The Chiefs defense has allowed the 7th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.67 per game this year.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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