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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projections to run 66.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.

In this week's contest, Courtland Sutton is anticipated by the projections to rank in the 87th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.

Courtland Sutton's 68.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 95th percentile for wide receivers.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a massive 7.5-point favorite this week.

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Courtland Sutton's pass-catching performance worsened this season, averaging just 3.2 adjusted receptions compared to 5.1 last season.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.4%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.4%).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, profiling as the 9th-best in football.

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