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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+117/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +113 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +117.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Broncos may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
  • The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Courtland Sutton to total 7.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Courtland Sutton's 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 68.1.
  • Courtland Sutton's play as a receiver has declined this season, notching a mere 3.7 adjusted receptions vs 5.1 last season.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's LB corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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