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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-111/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (64.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Denver Broncos.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by our trusted projection set to call 67.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 6th-most plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).
  • In this week's game, Courtland Sutton is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a massive 15.5-point favorite this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chargers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.1 per game) this year.
  • Courtland Sutton's 59.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 68.1.
  • Courtland Sutton's play as a receiver has tailed off this season, notching a mere 4.1 adjusted receptions compared to 5.1 last season.
  • This year, the daunting Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded a measly 59.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

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