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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-133/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -133.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Broncos to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are anticipated by the projection model to call 68.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 59.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.
  • In this game, Courtland Sutton is expected by the model to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.6 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Courtland Sutton's 56.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 68.1.
  • Courtland Sutton's receiving skills have tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 3.9 adjusted catches compared to 5.1 last season.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) versus WRs this year (62.4%).
  • The Jaguars linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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