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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league (63.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • Our trusted projections expect Courtland Sutton to total 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
  • The Broncos O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
  • Courtland Sutton's 52.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 68.1.
  • Courtland Sutton's 3.9 adjusted catches per game this year signifies a significant reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 5.1 figure.

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