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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The projections expect Courtland Sutton to accrue 7.2 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.
  • The Broncos offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • The Washington Commanders pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.3%) versus wide receivers this year (69.3%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
  • Courtland Sutton's 53.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 68.1.
  • Courtland Sutton's 3.8 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year's 5.1 figure.

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