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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+145/-205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -185 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -205.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • In this game, Courtland Sutton is expected by the model to find himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
  • The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • Courtland Sutton's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 68.1.
  • Courtland Sutton's receiving talent has worsened this season, notching a mere 3.7 adjusted catches vs 5.1 last season.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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