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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +117 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • In this week's contest, Courtland Sutton is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.6 targets.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 9-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
  • Courtland Sutton's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 68.1.
  • Courtland Sutton's play as a receiver has diminished this season, notching just 3.5 adjusted catches compared to 5.1 last season.

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