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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-127/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect Courtland Sutton to accumulate 7.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Courtland Sutton rates in the 96th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a superb 69.7 mark last year.

The Broncos O-line profiles as the best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Courtland Sutton ranks as one of the leading WRs in the game last year, averaging a terrific 5.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

Last year, the feeble Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered a whopping 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Broncos, who are a massive favorite by 8 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 26.9 per game) last year.

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