Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 95.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has been among the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (69.6%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (69.6%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Courtland Sutton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 59.2% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 13th percentile among WRs

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