Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 8.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Courtland Sutton's 64.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 54.2.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.