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Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-114/-114).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Broncos.The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.The projections expect Courtland Sutton to accrue 7.2 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.The Broncos offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.The Washington Commanders pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.3%) versus wide receivers this year (69.3%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 6-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.After accruing 102.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has been a disappointment this year, currently sitting at 90.0 per game.Courtland Sutton's 53.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 68.1.Courtland Sutton's 52.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year represents a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 73.0 mark.Courtland Sutton's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 2.11 figure last season.
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