Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (+110/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 62.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to earn 9.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this year (24.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (19.4%).
Courtland Sutton has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (100.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Courtland Sutton has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 57.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 11th percentile among WRs
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.