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Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Cooper Kupp Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-395).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -310 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -395.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.
  • With a top-tier 19.3% Red Zone Target% (82nd percentile) this year, Cooper Kupp ranks among the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.
  • Cooper Kupp grades out as one of the best possession receivers in football, completing an outstanding 70.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) against the 49ers defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.
  • The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
  • The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last season, Cooper Kupp has produced significantly fewer this season, currently boasting 37.0 per game.

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