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Connor Heyward

Connor Heyward Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Connor Heyward Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1350/-2400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2400.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.
  • This year, the shaky Packers defense has been gouged for a monstrous 0.83 receiving TDs per game to opposing TEs: the 3rd-largest rate in the league.
  • The opposing side have rushed for the 6th-fewest TDs in football (0.50 per game) vs. the Packers defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 49.0% rate of running the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Steelers.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.
  • While Connor Heyward has garnered 8.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a less important option in Pittsburgh's offense near the end zone in this contest at 2.7%.

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