Connor Heyward Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Connor Heyward

NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 13, 2026 12:57 AM UTC

Analysis

Connor Heyward Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+540/-720).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +700 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +540.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
This year, the stout Texans run defense has allowed a measly 0.76 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 8th-smallest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
Connor Heyward has accrued a puny 2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 17th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Connor Heyward places in just the 11th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a lackluster 2.1 mark this year.
This year, the formidable Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the league.

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