Connor Heyward Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Connor Heyward

NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM EST

Analysis

Connor Heyward Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the league (43.7 per game) this year.
In this week's contest, Connor Heyward is expected by the projections to rank in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.
While Connor Heyward has accounted for 6.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh's passing offense this week at 12.5%.

Favors Under

The Steelers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.5 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Connor Heyward's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 81.3% to 58.1%.
The Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.6%) vs. tight ends this year (64.6%).
The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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