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Cole Kmet Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+400/-480).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -470 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -480.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.

Cole Kmet has put up far more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).

Cole Kmet's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 21.0.

As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 47.1% red zone run rate.

Our trusted projections expect Cole Kmet to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (8.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).

Cole Kmet's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 85.6% to 47.7%.

More Cole Kmet Player Props

Cole Kmet TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9