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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-141).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • At just 28.00 seconds per snap, the Bears offense has been the 6th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The 49ers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bears rank as the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.7% pass rate.
  • Cole Kmet's 55.3% Route Participation Rate this year signifies a substantial reduction in his passing attack utilization over last year's 78.4% mark.
  • Cole Kmet's 1.6 adjusted receptions per game this season shows an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season's 3.4 rate.
  • Cole Kmet's 65.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 85.6% rate.
  • This year, the formidable 49ers defense has surrendered a measly 70.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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