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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The Bears offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.84 seconds per snap.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up a monstrous 77.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Cole Kmet's 53.5% Route% this year shows a noteworthy drop-off in his pass game workload over last year's 78.4% mark.
  • Cole Kmet's 1.6 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a meaningful decline in his receiving talent over last year's 3.4 rate.
  • Cole Kmet's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 85.6% to 62.9%.
  • The Packers safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

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