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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+215/-330).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -255 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -330.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The most plays in football have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up a monstrous 77.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (59.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bears.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Cole Kmet's 53.5% Route% this year shows a noteworthy drop-off in his pass game workload over last year's 78.4% mark.
  • Cole Kmet's 1.6 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a meaningful decline in his receiving talent over last year's 3.4 rate.
  • Cole Kmet's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 85.6% to 62.9%.

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