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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At just 28.07 seconds per play, the Chicago Bears offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: most in the league.
  • The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
  • The Steelers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.1%) vs. TEs this year (80.1%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Cole Kmet has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (55.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.4%).
  • Cole Kmet's 1.5 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a substantial decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 3.4 figure.
  • Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 85.6% to 57.3%.
  • As it relates to linebackers pass-rushing, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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