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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+172/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +172.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Bears have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.9 per game) this year.
  • Cole Kmet has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (55.1% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.4%).
  • Cole Kmet's play as a receiver has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 1.2 adjusted catches compared to 3.4 last season.
  • Cole Kmet's 49.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects an impressive decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 85.6% mark.

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