Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard game plan.
The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.0 per game) this year.
In this week's contest, Cole Kmet is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.9 targets.
Cole Kmet's 4.6 adjusted catches per game this year signifies a a significant boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 3.0 rate.
Cole Kmet's 79.1% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a a noteable growth in his pass-catching ability over last year's 74.3% figure.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.72 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.
Cole Kmet has gone out for fewer passes this season (71.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.

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