Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to garner 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been among the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (75.5%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (75.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 53.6 plays per game.

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