Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 5.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet's 38.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been among the leading pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.6 receptions per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.