My Account Log Out
 
 
Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 140.1 total plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
  • After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last year, Cole Kmet has undergone big improvement this year, currently pacing 42.0 per game.
  • Cole Kmet's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 21.0.
  • The Chicago offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. TEs this year, allowing 8.06 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in football.
  • Cole Kmet's 18.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a meaningful reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 35.0 rate.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™