Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
In this week's contest, Cole Kmet is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.
Cole Kmet has accumulated a monstrous 27.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cole Kmet's 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 32.0 rate.
Cole Kmet's 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a substantial progression in his receiving skills over last year's 74.3% figure.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
Cole Kmet's 72.9% Route% this season illustrates a substantial diminishment in his pass game workload over last season's 84.0% mark.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Lions pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.9%) to TEs this year (69.9%).

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