Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has compiled a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.