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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+268/-461).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +321 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +268.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

Cole Kmet has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Cole Kmet's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 93rd percentile for TEs.

Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 73.6%.

Cole Kmet ranks in the 94th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.38 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in football.

Cole Kmet has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (33.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (64.2%) versus TEs this year (64.2%).

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