Cole Kmet Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+201/-315).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +311 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +201.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Cole Kmet has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet's 38.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for tight ends.
Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 71.5%.
Cole Kmet ranks in the 95th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.42 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Cole Kmet has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

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